The Tragedy of Defect Prediction, Prince of Empirical Software Engineering Research

Abstract. If measured by the number of published papers, defect prediction has become an important research field over the past decade, with many researchers continuously proposing novel approaches to predict defects in software systems. However, most of these approaches have had a noticeable lack of impact on industrial practice. This lack of impact is because something is intrinsically wrong in how defect prediction approaches are evaluated.